Action Item: Do not forward polls or respond to them yet. They have been wrong a lot these past few election cycles, yet we still treat them as fact.
Listen to our short podcast above or on Spotify.
Ok, huddle up. Polling is going to start in earnest … very soon. Oh my goodness, oh my goodness, “the sky is falling,” … oh my goodness, oh my goodness, “we did it, we are going to win.” None of these responses has any validity, yet we see a poll and participate with the wringing of hands or celebrations as if their predictions already happened.
This race turned on a dime twice in the last month; after the debates in June and when Harris was placed as the nominee apparent. It can happen again, and while polls do tell a story - or some of them do - they are not predictors of the future.
Shanette Cohn and Christine Merser spend fifteen minutes going over how we decipher the polls with an understanding of what is fact versus supposition, and then we introduce our mutual appreciation for Steve Kornacki, the baby-faced, totally believable pollster on MSNBC, who could be a wolf in sheep’s clothing, but we think not.
If you are new here and didn’t read out missive on Poll vaulting a week or so ago, here it is to explain in more detail what to look for and how to read between the lines.
Would love your thoughts on polling.
Share this post